August 31, 2020

Global equities poised to complete hottest August since 1986

Stock indices from New York to Tokyo have pushed higher over the past month in the biggest August market bonanza in decades.

A sagging US dollar has combined with sparks of monetary and fiscal stimulus to help ignite a global equities rally during a month when traders would usually prefer focusing on the beach instead of their data terminals. Indications that major global economies are on a recovery track have also helped to ease investor jitters that dominated this spring.

The MSCI World index of stocks in developed nations has jumped 6.6 per cent in August, which if sustained, would be the sharpest rally for that month since 1986. The average move either up or down for the gauge over the past 44 years in August is half that magnitude at 3.3 per cent.

The broader All-World index that also includes emerging markets has risen 6.3 per cent, its best run on records stretching back to 1988.

The gains in August have been regionally diverse. Wall Street’s S&P 500 is up 7.2 per cent, having earlier this month wiped out the last of its pandemic losses and struck an all-time peak. Markers tracking stocks in Germany, France, Italy and

JPMorgan’s market guru who called the comeback says Trump’s re-election chances are rising

President Donald Trump

Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images

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President Donald Trump’s re-election chances are rising, which could leave investors positioned for a Biden victory in the dust, according to JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic.

“We currently believe that momentum in favor of Trump will continue, while the most investors are still positioned for a Biden win,” he wrote in a note to clients Monday. “The impact on sectors and factors (momentum vs value, cyclicals vs tech, ESG) could be dramatic and investment portfolios should adjust for a potential Trump re-election,” he added.

Kolanovic, who is JPMorgan’s global head of macro quantitative and derivatives strategy, is known lately for his often prescient calls. He correctly predicted the market’s bottom in March, and has been bullish on stocks since.

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